Trade Drivers:
- Similar momentum (W3 D2 L1) v (W4 D0 L2)
- iFB expected goals 1.82 v 1.34
- No 0-0s and just one 1-0 in last 10 Head to Heads (H2H)
- Comparing form against sides of similar grade / status (courtesy of Betform Pro): B v A
- Total 2 - 3 goals expectation is 67%
- Over 1.5 goals expectation is 89%
- BTTS 'Yes' expectation is 67%
- Entry
- Dutch 2-0, 1-1, 0-2 for 30% of stake, and
- Dutch 3-0, 2-1, 1-2 & 0-3 for remaining 70% of stake
- The P/L across the book should read approx.
- 0 goals: -100%
- 1 goal: -100%
- 2 goals: +25%
- 3 goals: +210%
- 4+ goals: -100%
- Exit
- Hedge after the 3rd goal
- Dangers and possible mitigating moves
- 0 - 1 goals - this will result in the loss of the full stake - consider covering 0-1 / 1-0 if there is an early goal as the odds will be much greater than at kick off. It is important that if the second goal has not arrived you exit to a pre-determined acceptable loss.
- An early 3rd goal - ideally we only want the 3rd goal to arrive as late as possible, however, if we get 3 goals before half time, close the trade for a loss - I would expect approximately 50% loss if there are 3 goals by half time.
- 4+ goals - this is only a danger if you don't hedge after the 3rd goal
Good luck whatever you are on this weekend.
All the best
Ronnie